Sunday 4 December 2011

White noise Lekin – on the other side

Just a few months ago, the consensus among instrumental leaders and influential thinkers was that operation Geronimo would unleash a wave of global issues and security concerns for Pakistan. Phase one of the response, it was assumed, would send some heads rolling, see some senior intelligence officials convicted for ignorance or compliance or worse, and include the breaking of all ties with the US over their utter disregard for our sovereignty. These were only some of the dire consequences expected by the experts. None of the above mentioned happened. 

What ensued then was entirely predictable: carefully orchestrated jingoistic outbursts, street protests and misguided patriotism. In Pakistan, this is the standard turn of events we witness each time there is an incursion by an overreaching state. By the time we get done with burning effigies of President Obama, stamping angrily on US flags and screaming our lungs out at the infidels – the worst has passed. The protests fade away, the anger subsides and the rest of the violence ends until next time. Moreover, we always find ourselves exactly as we are today: angry, regretful, vengeful and alone. 

Nato strikes on our border check posts are reason for our new-found anger against the US. General Kayani has upped the ante, threatening an aggressive and powerful response should such action be repeated. Meanwhile, a 23-year-old in Lahore was quoted by international news agencies as threatening Nato and the US thus: “If they do something like this again, we are going to turn Pakistan into their graveyard.” I wonder where we are going to find more room to bury dead men in Pakistan. Pakistan is already a graveyard to 40,000 of my people who died at the hands of extremists. Add to that 5000 of our brave soldiers – some who bore the bullet from an infidel’s gun, others who heard “Allah-o-Akbar” before shrapnel pierced their hearts. 

Pakistanis now have one more tragedy to mourn: the deaths of 24 men on November 26 in an unprovoked attack on two military border posts in Mohmand. The American response was too little too late. Chairman of the US military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey categorically stated that it was ‘not a deliberate’ attack. Barack Obama meanwhile, deliberately avoided apologising – proving that change is all well until it’s your job that’s on the line. Nato meanwhile, is in the process of reviewing all available evidence including radio traffic and gun tapes to determine what led to this atrocity. They’re still calling it an “accident”. Mind you, accidents can be condoled, not apologised for. Unless you count Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton’s ‘kind’ remarks in the aftermath of a very unkind action and Cameron Munter’s hollow words, there has been no significant acknowledgment of Nato forces’ “unintentional” blunder. 

Pakistan is hard pressed to respond strongly to this latest transgression. It has ordered the US to vacate Shamsi Airbase, blockaded Nato supplies through the Chaman and Khyber passes, and pulled out of the Bonn Conference. Pakistan’s moment of truth has arrived. We are alone. Russia, Iran, China, Turkey and the UAE have condemned the killings of Pakistani soldiers by the Nato forces. But words alone will not help Pakistan. China’s claims of respecting Pakistan’s territorial integrity fall on deaf ears. Our friendly neighbour may give us JF-17s but will it offer military support in the event of open war? Hardly. China’s energies are focused on its quest for economic, not military dominance. However, there is a subtle message for Pakistan: if the relationship with the US ever sours, China may rise to the occasion. From China, with love.

Iran, our neighbour on the eastern border, has issued a joint statement of some 224 Iranian parliamentarians. However, encouragement to move decisively against the US does not translate into aid. Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, custodian of the two Holy Mosques, the man who has topped Newsweek’s top 10 list of the most respected leaders in the world, has still not spoken in Pakistan’s favour. The UAE, meanwhile, arrived in Islamabad not to sympathise with Pakistan, but to intercede on behalf of the US. The UAE allegedly holds leasing rights for the Shamsi Airbase – on the surface to facilitate falcon-hunting for Arabs while sub-letting it to the Americans for their terrorist-hunting drones. While the UAE has deep historic ties with Pakistan, it also has a strategic relationship with the US that dates back to the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. The UAE keeps out of other countries’ internal affairs and believes in settling disputes by peaceful means. Will it turn aggressive towards the US? Don’t count on it. 

Turkey, along with fellow Nato members, including Germany and France, extended its condolences to Pakistan and supported the call for an impartial inquiry into the incident. Meanwhile, organisations such as the United Nations, the OIC and the European Union, revealed yet again, that they are ultimately impotent in the face of vested interests. 

For what it’s worth, Pakistan has earned the support of the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP). Echoing some of our political parties, they, too, are calling for an end to the alliance with the US, goading Pakistan to take revenge. However, almost as an afterthought, they clarify that this does not necessitate peace between the TTP and the GoP. So effectively alienate the US without any guarantee that the Taliban will ever come to the negotiating table. 

The US, meanwhile, is working hard at winning back Pakistan as an ally. Away from the watchful eye of the media, there are reports of back-door diplomacy at play. Pakistan’s long and troubled relationship with Washington has had at least one virtue: it has demonstrated that Pakistanis are paranoid about the American alliance for good reason. The US is impervious to the permanent hysteria of our hourly news cycle and street protests, un-swayed by public opinion a world away. Pakistan, on the other hand, may never let them in on its secret manoeuvres. Let’s face it: no one is buying into our strategic depth and we’re becoming embroiled in a crisis that keeps blowing up in our face. 

We cannot expect any one country or organisation to heal our every wound or to solve every major foreign policy crisis that we find ourselves faced with. The constant demands can be deafening. Yet what we need to do is to shut out the noise around us and concentrate on the essential: reverse our country’s image abroad and refresh its spirit at home. The silver lining? Pakistan’s own people haven’t turned against it. Yet.

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